what is the future of augmented reality?: Predicting the Impact
The near future fate of augmented reality is in an awkward place to predict. As manufacturers continue to release early, former consumer generation positioning for the first time, it’s making the future a bit blurry. After all, how can we predict the future of augmented reality if we are not even sure of the present?
Using the Gartner Hype Cycle, you find that Gartner’s analysis of augmented reality has put widespread adoption in about five to ten years. With the current state of augmented reality, this seems like an appropriate expectation.
The noise is easy to get. It’s easy, cheap, and fast to get you excited about potential hardware or software releases. When rubber hits the road is where actual products in the field see use in real world scenarios. The greatest products in the world mean nothing unless they never see the light of day and real world use.
Don’t get caught up in the hype around a product (any product). Almost every product will market itself as the “next big thing.” On the flip side, don’t let the fact that the product is being promoted instantly put it down in your mind either! Sometimes the hype is justified, sometimes it’s just propaganda.
Consumers are also a primary card in an AR scenario. Sometimes driven by marketing, sometimes driven by other desires, consumers can inadvertently steer the direction of entire industries, and they don’t always respond in the ways you might expect.
This is one reason why virtual reality, while still early in its life cycle, is easier to predict than augmented reality. VR has at least seen widespread consumer release for a number of products. This in turn led to headphone manufacturers being able to figure out what consumers were responding to: what worked and what didn’t. This has led to more revisions and a better idea of where things are headed.
AR still has that luxury. It has taken some steps out of the security of back labs and research centers, but it still needs to take a lot of real steps behind its front door. Mobile AR and its various enterprise-focused AR form factors have been an augmented reality pilot balloon, similar to putting your hand outside a window to see the weather.
It’s a wide world out there. It’s AR time to get off the front porch and start trying it out!
Augmented reality has had some promising signs of adoption. Consumers got a little taste of augmented reality via augmented reality on mobile devices and they reacted positively. Proven tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple have dumped the resources behind AR, new tech companies like Magic Leap and Meta are finding reason to jump in big, and public investment in technology has yet to slow.
With the development of augmented reality still in its early stages, it can be somewhat irresponsible to offer any kind of guesswork as to where we will end up in the near and distant future. But let’s live a little dangerously here and expect!
The immediate future of augmented reality adoption looks promising but is slow (at least, in technology time, where every year can feel like seven years). Expect further advances in both the form factor and software, as companies work to bundle devices they feel are widely accepted by consumers.
It’s likely at least a generation of devices or two by the time the everyday consumer might consider buying an AR headset, as most first-generation devices will continue to focus on enterprise-grade and/or developer-based versions. It can be hard to say for sure what works in the real world, but Gartner’s prediction of at least five years wouldn’t be surprising. But no one knows for sure. After all, anyone who makes time-based predictions in the tech world is bound to sound silly.
On a long enough schedule, it’s easy to imagine a device that integrates virtual reality and augmented reality experiences into a single device form factor. After all, most augmented reality devices are already required to do the same tasks that virtual reality devices do (3D visuals, audio, motion tracking, etc.). Augmented reality adds extra complexity. If a device is able to have a compelling augmented reality experience (i.e. really make it feel like 3D holograms inhabit your physical world), then that same device will probably be powerful enough to have a compelling virtual reality experience.
There are still, of course, many challenges for this “packed” headset to solve. (For example, how will the visuals work, especially since many AR images are expected reflections? How does a headset switch between dark virtual reality and transparent augmented reality?) But what was literally sci-fi stuff as recently as a few years ago is now on our doorstep as a possibility Clear.
The promise of augmented reality exists. As is the feeling that AR could be a bigger market than VR. Certainly, augmented reality’s ability to blend the real world with the digital one lends itself more to supporting the way most of us currently work, while working fully in virtual reality requires a complete overhaul of how we currently approach the workplace. Both are possible, although augmented reality may find itself more easily adaptable to our current workflow, which could be a huge boon for their adoption.
With the long adoption cycle of augmented reality, now is the time for content creators to enter the market, but make sure you understand what you’re getting into. Be aware of the market you are entering; Outside of augmented reality for mobile devices, the mass consumer market for headphones doesn’t even exist yet and likely in a few years. There are still plenty of opportunities to create for mobile augmented reality or to create applications for enterprise use. Just make sure you understand what type of market you might be targeting.
With augmented reality, as with any technology, learn about your market. If you anticipate becoming an AR millionaire over the next year selling stereoscopic gadgets for 99 cents on the headphone app store, your market may not be there yet.
It is likely that everyday consumers will still wait a few years to enter the market in large numbers. You may start to see augmented reality headsets find their way into your workplace in the next few years. If you are responsible for making those kinds of decisions, now might be a great time to take stock of how your industry is incorporating this technology into your workflow. You may find it convenient to start integrating now, or maybe not, but these technologies will be here faster than you think.
However, if you are interested in technology, especially as a content creator, there is no time like now to take a look at augmented reality. Entering early enough will allow you to seize opportunities and risks, learn and adjust your course of study along the way. Early entry into the market will allow you to build your expertise and will also increase the potential for market inclusion in your sector.
With Augmented Reality, you are in a unique position to invest your time or talents in a life-changing technology. But augmented reality is still young. Its maturity is likely similar to the early days of the Internet. And if you can go back in time and be one of the first to invest your time and talents in a life-changing technology like the Internet, right?